UFC 100
This is my first blog post, and my first Ultimate Fighting Championship prediction. In conversation it has always been easy for me to opine on a subject like UFC fights, but translating my calls into logical written arguments, like all strong writing, is perplexing. Just like anything else, I will improve with time and practice.
In other MMA news, I interviewed Kenny Florian last week. Florian is fighting B.J. Penn for the lightweight titleat UFC 101 in Philadelphia on August 8. We spoke about training, a possible rematch with Diego Sanchez, his thoughts on Philly Fight Factory’s Eddie Alvarez, and of course, his thoughts on his second title fight in August. It should be in the Metro sometime next week, and I’ll be sure to post the unedited interview on here afterward, so keep checking.
Frank Mir (12-3) vs. Brock Lesnar (3-1)
The rematch, once again, will be a classic battle of Mir’s technique against Lesnar’s brute force to unify the UFC heavyweight title. Their first fight over a year ago ended with Mir submitting Lesnar with a knee bar in the first round of the former WWE star's UFC debut. Lesnar rebounded by manhandling Heath Herring for three rounds to a unanimous decision. Then he knocked out Randy Couture in November to seize the heavyweight title. Brock Lesnar’s MMA skills in whole are still raw, but he is such a genetic freak that he has made improvement in just three fights that would take lesser fighters years to accomplish. He will not make the same mistakes in the rematch with Mir as he did in their first fight.
Mir’s striking game seems to have jumped to a new level. In Mir's most recent bout at UFC 92 in December, he became the first man to knock out former UFC and PRIDE heavyweight champion Antonio Minotaruo Nogueira. Mir pressed the pace, used his footwork to penetrate and evade his opponent, and looked fresh the whole two rounds. But, unlike Nogueira, Mir will not be afforded an overly passive opponent to pick apart standing up in Lesnar. Brock will meet Mir with dangerous and determined intensity, look to dictate the pace and impose his hulking specimen. Should Mir take Lesnar outside of his comfort zone with superior boxing, Lesnar has core as an NCAA wrestler to take the fight downstairs. Mir will exhuast himself defending takedowns for five rounds, and given his base in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, it seems inevitable that the fight will see Mir on his back against Lesnar, the wrestler.
If Mir cannot catch Lesnar in a bone-breaking submission or sinking in a choke early in the fight, it is unlikely to happen at all. So Mir will have to meet Brock head on and refused to be bullied around the cage, even if it means swinging for the knockout and giving up a take down. Off his back, Mir must control his opponent's posture and stay offensive with sweeps, submission attempts and elbows from the bottom, or else the fight will be over as soon as Lesnar rains down a volley of his bludgeoning, machete-like hammer fists.
Experience could win the fight for Mir if he stays smart, calm, and opportunistic to capitalize on Lesnar’s technical mistakes that he is bound to make as the fight wears on, even into the later rounds against the larger, stronger fresher Lesnar, who may be ahead on the judges score card for his top control.
Still, Brock's improvement in just a few fights is frightening. I pick him to win via (t)ko.
Georges St. Pierre (18-2) vs. Thiago Alves (16-3)
Canada’s golden boy engages the Brazilian pit bull (by way of American Top Team in Florida) for the welterweight battle. The wrestling advantage, as usual, belongs to GSP. He has tossed heralded grapplers Matt Hughes, B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch to the floor and made it seem easy in the past. Alves is no different.
GSP’s greatest weapon, perhaps, is his power to bewilder and drain the energy of his adversaries with his dizzying, punishing and relentless pace. (His “riddim”) World class in his wrestling and conditioning, and well rounded in his striking, jiu-jitsu, submission defense and clinch, GSP will overwhelm Thiago Alves, who has struggled against the clinch and takedown control of other wrestlers in the division like Jon Fitch’. GSP’s takedown prowess and unpredictable offense will be a nightmare for the Brazilian.
But his opponent is not to be discredited as a push over, either. Alves hits hard, appears the physical equal in size and strength. He’ll need to neutralize GSP’s top control if he is taken down by the champion. And he will need to let his hands and feet fly with careful timing and total disregard if he has any hopes of winning. He has some of the meanest leg kicks in the UFC—it will pay dividends if he can throw them unpredictably to wear down GSP’s sciatic nerve without, of course, leaving himself over to be taken down. Matt Serra proved that GSP can be knocked out. If Alves hits him with a power punch or a flying knee, like the one that tore Matt Hughes knee joint under the weight of his crumbling body, it will be lights out for the Canadian champ.
Still, I see GSP outclassing Alves in a hard-earned stoppage or decision.
In his sophomore appearance in the octagon following a first round knock-out of Josh Koscheck, Paulo Thiago takes on another talented wrestler and durable Jon Fitch. Thiago’s unbeaten 11-fight winning streak is impressive, but only one of those wins is in the UFC. While Fitch's UFC record alone boasts of an eight-fight winning streak against foes like Thiago Alves, Diego Sanchez and Chris Wilson. He should be able to absorb whatever Thiago throws at him and grind his opponent down for the victory.
Michael Bisping (17-1) vs. Dan Henderson (24-7)
Quite simply, Bisping has performed adequately in the UFC and should have a promising future, but he has never faced an opponent of Henderson’s caliber. Hendo’s heavy hitting and Olympian-level wrestling will expose Bisping’s faults in a dominating show. Bisping got lucky by winning a controversial split decision against Matt Hamill, another Olympic wrestler with far less versatility and experience than Henderson. He was defeated by Rashad Evan’s takedown ability. Henderson also hits harder than anyone Bisping has faced before, having been in some memorable slug fests with Wanderlei Silva, Mirko “Crocop” and Quinton Jackson. Henderson wins by knockout, I predict.
Yoshihiro Akiyama Versus Alan Belcher
With a few exceptions--specifically, Lyoto Machida—imports fight from the Japanese brand MMA organizations like PRIDE and K-1 have fallen pitifully short in the octagon. By that logic, Akiyama is in for an unforgiving welcome to the octagon against the scrappy Alan Belcher. If Belcher is smart he will capitalize on Akiyama’s inexperience fighting in a cage, bully him to the fence, clinch and dirty box, and throw elbows to slice him open for a stoppage.
Akiyama's judo experience will frustrate Belcher, who has been prone to fall victim to submissions in the past. Additionally, the former K-1 champion has honed his striking skills against some formidable kickboxing adversaries like Jerome LeBanner and Melvin Manhoef in the past. It may be the recipe to stop a gatekeeper like Belcher, but not enough for Akiyama to make a title run anytime soon.
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